Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall in France Through Trend Detections in Average Climatic Characteristics - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement Accéder directement au contenu
Poster De Conférence Année : 2008

Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall in France Through Trend Detections in Average Climatic Characteristics

Impacts du changement climatique sur les pluies extrêmes à travers la détection de tendance de caractéristiques climatiques moyennes

Résumé

An original approach is proposed to estimate the impacts of climate change on extreme events using an hourly rainfall stochastic generator. The considered generator relies on three parameters. These parameters are estimated by average, not by extreme, values of daily climatic characteristics. Since climate changes should result in parameters instability in time, the poster focuses on testing the presence of linear trends in the generator parameters. A general regionalization procedure is also proposed which offers the possibility to work on both local and regional scales. From the daily information of 139 rain gauge stations between 1960-2003, changes in heavy precipitations in France and their impacts on quantile predictions are investigated. It appears that significant changes occur mainly between December and May for the rainfall occurrence which increased during the four last decades, except in the Mediterranean area. Using the trend estimates, one can deduced that these changes, up to now, do not affect quantile estimations.
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Dates et versions

hal-02594335 , version 1 (15-05-2020)

Identifiants

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P. Cantet, P. Arnaud. Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall in France Through Trend Detections in Average Climatic Characteristics. AGU fall, San Francisco, USA, December 2008, Dec 2008, San Francisco, United States. pp.1, 2008. ⟨hal-02594335⟩

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