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Article Dans Une Revue Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Année : 2017

Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices

Résumé

Many fields, such as drought-risk assessment or reservoir management, can benefit from long-range stream- flow forecasts. Climatology has long been used in long- range streamflow forecasting. Conditioning methods have been proposed to select or weight relevant historical time series from climatology. They are often based on general circulation model (GCM) outputs that are specific to the fore- cast date due to the initialisation of GCMs on current conditions. This study investigates the impact of conditioning methods on the performance of seasonal streamflow forecasts. Four conditioning statistics based on seasonal forecasts of cumulative precipitation and the standardised precipitation index were used to select relevant traces within historical streamflows and precipitation respectively. This resulted in eight conditioned streamflow forecast scenarios. These scenarios were compared to the climatology of historical stream- flows, the ensemble streamflow prediction approach and the streamflow forecasts obtained from ECMWF System 4 precipitation forecasts. The impact of conditioning was assessed in terms of forecast sharpness (spread), reliability, overall performance and low-flow event detection. Results showed that conditioning past observations on seasonal precipitation indices generally improves forecast sharpness, but may reduce reliability, with respect to climatology. Conversely, conditioned ensembles were more reliable but less sharp than streamflow forecasts derived from System 4 precipitation. Forecast attributes from conditioned and unconditioned ensembles are illustrated for a case of drought-risk forecasting: the 2003 drought in France. In the case of low-flow forecasting, conditioning results in ensembles that can better assess weekly deficit volumes and durations over a wider range of lead times.
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Dates et versions

hal-01599733 , version 1 (02-10-2017)

Identifiants

Citer

Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, F. Pappenberger, Charles Perrin. Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2017, 21 (3), pp.1573-1591. ⟨10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017⟩. ⟨hal-01599733⟩

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