The reduction continuous rank probability score for evaluating discharge forecasts from hydrological ensemble prediction systems
Le 'reduction continuous rank probability score' pour évaluer les prévisions de débits de systèmes de prévisions d'ensemble hydrologiques
Trinh, B.N. ; Thielen del-Pozo, J. ; Thirel, G.
Type de document
Article de revue scientifique à comité de lecture
Affiliation de l'auteur
JRC IES JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY ISPRA ITA ; JRC IES JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY ISPRA ITA ; IRSTEA ANTONY UR HBAN FRA
Résumé / Abstract
Ensemble prediction system (EPS) meteorological forecasts are increasingly being used as input to hydrological models in order to extend flood-warning lead-times and to improve forecasts and the knowledge of their uncertainty. Probabilistic skill scores classically used in meteorology are usually also utilized for assessing the quality of hydrological ensemble forecasts. However, the different river discharge magnitudes can make difficult the interpretation and comparisons of these scores, as it is for the continuous rank probability score (CRPS). In this letter, a novel 'Reduction' CRPS (RCRPS), which takes into account the different river discharge magnitudes, is proposed, and its usefulness is exhibited.
Atmospheric Science Letters, vol. 14, num. 2, p. 61 - 65